Between Clouds, Carpathian Mountains-EUROPHOTOMETEO2012
Climhydex
Climhydex
Aeolian Harp, Dobrogea-EUROPHOTOMETEO2012
Climhydex
Sky Paintings, Cluj Napoca-EUROPHOTOMETEO2012
Climhydex
Peace, Balea Lake-EUROPHOTOMETEO2012
Climhydex
Water Magic, Alba County-EUROPHOTOMETEO2012
Climhydex
Mistic River, Alba County-EUROPHOTOMETEO2012
Climhydex
Summer Storm, Targoviste-EUROPHOTOMETEO2012
Climhydex
The Morning Fog-Ceata de dimineata-Letea, Tulcea-EUROPHOTOMETEO2012
Climhydex
Waiting for the Rain, Brasov-EUROPHOTOMETEO2012
Climhydex

Climate change scenarios

WP4: Climate change scenarios

Coordinator: Aristita Busuioc

The main objective of this WP is developing of statistical downscaling models (SDMs) to estimate changes in seasonal climate extreme indices for the periods 2021-2050, 2071-2100, to estimate changes in climate parameters used as inputs in hydrological models and associated uncertainties by including additional information from the RCM outputs. This WP is coordinated by the NMA and is structured in the following tasks:

Task 4.1; Developing of statistical downscaling models (SDMs) for seasonal extreme indices (NMA, UB-FF). The results from WP3 (tasks 3.1-3.3) will be used to construct linear univariate and multi-variate linear models (SDMs) to estimate the seasonal extreme indices in Romania from large-scale anomalies; new nonlinear method based on neural network will be tested for the first time; SDM validation on observed independent data set will be performed and the optimum SDM will be established for each parameter/season;

Task 4.2. Developing of SDMs on high spatial and temporal resolution (NMA) used for hydrological impact on pilot basins. Conditional stochastic model generating 6 hour precipitation time series will be for the first time developed over the selected hydrological basins; linear models will be developed for daily temperature;

 Task4.3. Validation of RCMs/GCMs (NMA, NIHWM). The selected RCMs/GCMs will be validated in terms of their capability to reproduce the mean state and local/regional variability in Romania as well as large-scale variability over the current period 1961-2000 (NMA); new method based on informational entropy will be also tested in this project (NIHWM ;

Task4.4. . Climate change scenarios on various spatial and temporal scale and associated uncertainty (NMA,UB-FF). SDMs developed in the tasks 4.1-4.2 will be applied to the predictors simulated by the GCM /RCM climate change scenarios (task 2.3) under various emission scenarios to estimate local climate extremes in Romania/hydrological basin level; some extreme indices will be estimate directly from the RCM outputs and compared to the SDM results leading to the estimation of the uncertainties associated to these changes; A probabilistic approach will be applied to the ensemble of SDMs+RCMs outputs and the optimum estimation (given be the ensemble mean /median) as well spread, entire range of domain (maximum, minimum) or various percentile will be estimated.; this result is obtained for the first time for climate extremes on the Romanian scale.

Etichete: