Between Clouds, Carpathian Mountains-EUROPHOTOMETEO2012
Climhydex
Climhydex
Aeolian Harp, Dobrogea-EUROPHOTOMETEO2012
Climhydex
Sky Paintings, Cluj Napoca-EUROPHOTOMETEO2012
Climhydex
Peace, Balea Lake-EUROPHOTOMETEO2012
Climhydex
Water Magic, Alba County-EUROPHOTOMETEO2012
Climhydex
Mistic River, Alba County-EUROPHOTOMETEO2012
Climhydex
Summer Storm, Targoviste-EUROPHOTOMETEO2012
Climhydex
The Morning Fog-Ceata de dimineata-Letea, Tulcea-EUROPHOTOMETEO2012
Climhydex
Waiting for the Rain, Brasov-EUROPHOTOMETEO2012
Climhydex

Report 2015

Scientific Report on the implementation of the project “Changes in climate extremes and associated impact in hydrological events in Romania”

Phase 2015

In the reported period (1.12.2014-31.12.2015) the research activity has been carried out according to the approved working plan. In the following, a synthesis of these results is presented, for each approved objective and activity. The results were presented at 26 scientific conferences (national and international) and included in 14 articles: published/accepted (11, 4-ISI, 5-BDI), submitted/under review/ (5, 2-ISI, 3-other publications); the list of publications carried out in the reported period is attached at the end of this report. Two PhD theses including results carried out in this project have been finalised in the reported period. For 6 articles, submitted for publications during the previous year, corrections and additional work have been carried out, all of them being finally published in international peer-reviewed journals (see (http://climhydex.meteoromania.ro). The results published by Dumitrescu et al. (2015) and presented at the 2015 ANM Annual Scientific Conference have been awarded with the “Premiul Administratiei Nationale de Meteorologie - National meteorological Administration Prize”. The updated list of publications and presentations can be seen on the project site (http://climhydex.meteoromania.ro) at sections “Publications” and “Meetings”, respectively.

1. Understanding of large-scale mechanisms controlling the climate extreme variability on various spatial and temporal scale

1.1. Corrections at 6 articles submitted for publication in 2014
During the reported period, various corrections have been carried out (Busuioc et al., 2015; Dumitrescu et al., 2015; Carbunaru and Burcea, 2015; Dobrinescu et al., 2015; Mic et al., 2015; Rimbu et al., 2015), including additional work as suggested by the anonymous reviewers, such as: analysis of an additional cold index (WCT) used in international applications, compared to the previous one (IR) based on an index established by the ANM in the operational activity.

1.2. Finalizing of 4 articles referring to the activity reported in 2014

An additional research activity has been carried out in 2015 to finalize four main issues, mainly reported in 2014, in order to prepare improved papers to be accepted for publishing in prestigious international peer-reviewed journals, as presented in the following:

Analysis of changes in pedological droughts in Romania

In the reported period, the analysis of the pedological drought space-time variability in Romania has been finalysed, based on the analysis of time series related to agrometeorological data (soil moisture and phenological data) and various climatic indices. Taking into account two crops (winter wheat and maize), the time series associated to their main phenological phases at every agrometeorological station over the 1971-2012 interval were analysed: three phases for winter wheat (A1-G-field, A2-G-steam elongation and heading, A3-G – flowering) and two phases for maize (A1-P – flowering panicle, A2-P-silk phase). For those data series, there were determined the main characteristics of the temporal variability (mean regime given by the multiannual mean, the long-term linear trend and shift in the mean) along with the spatial variability (the main variability modes given by the first two EOF patterns), using the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt non-parametric tests and EOF analysis.
The results show a high variability of the mean soil moisture reserve for both crops in the different phenological phases. It can be noticed that the south, south-eastern and eastern regions are the most affected by extreme and strong pedological drought in Romania, especially during the summer time for maize crop. In this context, the mean regime with severe drought for maize is wide, encompassing the south-eastern regions in July, expanding in August over the entire south of the country. As regards the general trend, there are differences between the two crops as well as between various phenological phases. Thus, in case of winter wheat, in the sowing phase (A1-G), a noticeable upward shift around 1994 of the soil moisture reserve was found, leading towards satisfactory or even optimum conditions for every region.
To understand the reasons that induced these pedological drought characteristics, the correlation between the time series associated to EOF1 (PC1) of the 5 agrometeorological indices presented above and PC1 for various climate indices was computed. The following climate indices were considered: total precipitation (PP) and and number of rainfall days (RR-Fr)cumulated over 1-3 months, maximum duration of summer dry intervals (Dmaxpp0) and monthly total of maximum summer daily temperatures > 32 oC (IST). The results show statistical significant positive correlations for PP (0.40-0.87) and RR-Fr (0.36-0.73), while for Dmaxpp0 and IST the correlations are negative:-0.48 (Dmaxpp0), -0.42 (IST). These results were presented in international („2015 Conference on Global Climate Change”) and national (“Sesiunea Anuală de Comunicări Stiinţifice ANM”) scientific conferences (Mateescu et al. 2015a,b) and are also included in a paper that will be submitted to an international peer-reviewed journal.

Changes in intensity of precipitation extremes in Romania on very hight temporal scale and implications on the validity of the Clausius-Clapeyron relation

In the previous year, a precipitation index has been proposed (IMAX), to quantify the intensity of precipitation extremes on very short time (a few minutes). Compared to previous papers accomplished within the CLIMHYDEX project ((Busuioc et al., 2015a, b, Annex A1, www.climhydex.meteoromania.ro), when the precipitation extremes were calculated on fix intervals (day, hour), IMAX quantifies the maximum intenxity on the event level (for every rainfall). In the reported period, the dependence between the highest IMAX percentiles (90th, 99th and 99.9th) and daily temperatures, with respect to the verification of the Clausius-Clapeyron relation (CC), has been analysed and the results were compared to those obtained by using hourly data (Busuioc et al. 2015b, Annex A1, www.climhydex.meteoromania.ro). The results show a dependence close to double the CC relation for temperatures less than ~22°C and negative scaling rates for higher temperatures. This behaviour is similar for all the 5 analysed stations and the three percentiles aver the common interval 1950-2007; for Bucuresti-Filaret station, the results are similar over a longer interval (1898-2007). showing that this findings are robust. The previous results referring to the hourly rainfall intensities recorded at 9 stations (including the 5 ones analysed in the reported period) show a slightly different result: the 90th percentile shows dependence close to the CC relation for all temperatures; the 99th and 99.9th percentiles exhibit rates close to double the CC rate for temperatures between ~10°C and ~22°C and negative scaling rates for higher temperatures. These results are in agreement with other international results that show that the dependence between the extreme precipitation intensity and atmospheric temperature is more complex than it is presented by the CC relation and it is mainly dependent on the temporal precipitation resolution, region, precipitation type and if the analysis is made on the event level (as presented in this report) or on fix intervals (day, hour, sub-hour, etc). The results have been presented at the Annual ANM Scientific Meeting (Busuioc et al, 2015a, www.climhydex.meteoromania.ro, “Meetings and Events”).

Spatio-temporal variability of dryness/wetness in the Danube River Basin
In 2015 the spatio-temporal variability of dryness/wetness conditions has been analyzed by means of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for an accumulation periods of 6 months over the Danube catchment.
To characterize the spatial variability of SPI6 at monthly time scales, an empirical othogonal function (EOF) analysis was applied. The leading mode of dryness/wetness variability was found to be strongly related to the different phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The second and third modes of variability show a more regional character of the dryness/wetness variability over the Danube River catchment area. Based on composite map analysis, between the time series corresponding to the first three leading modes of dryness/wetness variability and the geopotential height at 850mb and precipitation totals, it is shown that dryness (wetness) conditions over the Danube catchment area are associated with an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation, transport of dry (humid) air towards the Danube catchment area and reduced (enhanced) number of rain days. For all dominant modes of SPI6 variability, in term of the first three EOFs, there is a very consistent picture: wet (dry) periods are associated with a cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation, convergence (divergence) and advection of moist (dry) air, covered (clear) sky and increased (reduced) number of rain days. All these factors are strongly interrelated, and all together affect a large part of the dryness/wetness variability over the Danube catchment. This kind of analysis can be useful to connect dryness/wetness variability to climate forcings (Ionita et al., 2015, see Annex A1, www.climhydex.meteoromania.ro).
The impact of climate change on drought over the Bârlad basin and dependence on the soil-atmosphere interaction.

The climate change impact on the drought over the Bârlad basin has been assessed by using the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The multimodel average to limit the influence of climatic noise inherent in each regional model is used. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is considered to characterise the drought over the selected basin. The correlations between observed streamflow at the Bârlad basin outlet and PDSI-related indices show that the PDSI represents reasonably well the local process taking place in the Bârlad catchment. Linear trend analysis show that the basin-averaged PDSI is reduced with about 4.7 (3.9) units from 1971 to 2100 under the RCP 8.5 (RCP 4.5), which suggests that what may be considered normal conditions at the end of the 21st century may be characterized as extreme (strong) drought at the end of 20th century. However, the analysis of the effects of potential evapotranspiration formulations on future drought assessment show that under climate change conditions the Tronthwaite approach lead to an overestimation of aridity tendency compared with Penman approach. On the other hand, the local signal is also dependent on the soil type. These results were included in a paper that was submitted for publication in the peer-reviewed journal Catena and this paper is under the second review (Dascalu et al., 2015, Annex A1, www.climhydex.meteoromania.ro).

2. Developing of improved statistical downscaling models (SDMs)

The research activities started in the previous years have been continued in the reported period through two types of activities as presented in the following.
2.1. Estimation of seasonal extreme climate indices through developing of SDMs based on CCA

In the reported period, a SDM has been developed to estimate the frequency of summer rain showers (RS-Fr) at 81 Romanian stations using the instability index TT as large-scale predictor. In the previous reports it was found that the lftx4 instability index (dowloaded directly from the NCEP/NCAR archive) is the best predictor for the RS-Fr ((Busuioc et al., 2015b, Annex A1, www.climhydex.meteoromania.ro). However, this index is not directly available from the climate model scenarios and the computing algoritm is not also explicitly available. From this reason, the TT index was used as large-scale predictor and this can be calculate based on air temperature at 850/500 hPa and reltive humidity at 850 hPa. In the paper mentioned above it was found that the SDM performance based on TT predictor is simiular with those based on the lftx4 predictor. However, the performance is different from one station to another and the stations with similar performance are regionaly clustered that is in agreement with the results found for the precipitation total (Busuioc et al., 2006). In the previous reports, homogeneous regions for various precipitation indices have been identified and these will be used to maximise the performance for RS-Fr SDMs.
In conclusion, we could assert that the SDMs based on the CCA method are performant for all sesonal extreme climate indices analysed in this project, the highest performance being identified for the extreme temperature indices and, in this case, a single SDM for the entire country and each season can be developed. For precipitation indices, the developing of SDMs for each hogeneous region (identified in the previous report) is recomended. On the other hand, in previous reports/papers carried out within this project, it was proved that it could be developed SDMs simultaneously for temperature and precipitation extreme indices (Busuioc et al., 2015a, Annex A1, www.climhydex.meteoromania.ro) , as well as for complex indices such as thermal stress indices (Dobrinescu et al., 2015, Annex A1, www.climhydex.meteoromania.ro).

2.2. Estimation of some seasonal extreme climate indices in Romania using statistical models based on multiple regression applied to blocking/circulation indices

In the reported period, the relationship between the frequency of very warm days (TX90p) in Romania and large-scale atmospheric circulation for winter (December–February) and summer (June–August) between 1962 and 2010, was investigated. In order to achieve this, two catalogues from COST733Action were used to derive daily circulation types. Seasonal occurrence frequencies of the circulation types were calculated and have been utilized as predictors within the multiple linear regression model (MLRM) for the estimation of winter and summer TX90p values for 85 synoptic stations covering the entire Romania. A forward selection procedure has been utilized to find adequate predictor combinations and those predictor combinations were tested for collinearity. The performance of the MLRMs has been quantified based on the explained variance. Furthermore, the leave-one-out cross-validation procedure was applied and the root-mean-squared error skill score was calculated at station level in order to obtain reliable evidence of MLRM robustness. From this analysis, it can be stated that the MLRM performance is higher in winter compared to summer. This is due to the annual cycle of incoming insolation and to the local factors such as orography and surface albedo variations. The MLRM performances exhibit distinct variations between regions with high performance in wintertime for the eastern and southern part of the country and in summertime for the western part of the country. One can conclude that the MLRM generally captures quite well the TX90p variability and reveals the potential for statistical downscaling of TX90p values based on circulation types. These results were published by Barbu et al. (2015a) in the peer-reviewed journal Theoretical and Applied Climatology (see Annex A1, www.climhydex.meteoromania.ro).

3. Future changes of various climate parameters including extremes and associated uncertainties
3.1. Validation of global climate models (GCMs)
In the reported period, the performance of some GCMs in reproducing the main features of the predictors used as inputs in the SDMs has been analysed. In this respect, the simulations of 4 GCMs (CNCM33, run1, run2; MPEH5, run1, run3) carried out within the ENSEMBLES project have been anlysed in terms of their performance in reproducing the mean state and standard deviation for two climate variablesusualy used as large predictors in the SDMs: air temperature at 850 hPa (T850) and sea level pressure (SLP). It was found that only CNCM33 (run1) reproduces well the two parameters. This result shows that the future changes of the climate parameters (including extremes) estimated through SDMs using these predictors are more credible compared to other GCMs. As an example, Figure 1 shows the difference between mean T850 computed from the CNCM33 (run 1) simulations (left) and MPEH5 (run1) simulations (right) against corresponding reanalysis data over the current period 1971-2000 during wintertime. To have a better estimation of the uncertainty associated to the large-scale predictors used as inputs in the SDMs, much more GCMs should be analysed to find more than one GCM capable to reasonably reproduce these predictors and this will be finalised in the next period.

Figure 1. Difference between mean T850 computed from the CNCM33 (run 1) simulations (left) and MPEH5 (run1) simulations (right) against corresponding reanalysis data over the current period 1971-2000 during wintertime.

3.2. Estimation of changes in various seasonal indices associated to climate extremes in Romania through statistical downscaling models

In the reported period, changes in thermal stress indices in Romania over the future periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 against the current period 1971-2000, under the A1B emission scenario, have been computed. A statistical downscaling model based on CCA developed in the previous CLIMHYDEX periods has been used. The predictors have been taken from the following ENSEMBLES (stream 2) GCM simulations: CNCM33 (run1, run2), MPEH5 (run1 and run3).
The results show that for the period 2021-2050, it is expected a slight increase of the two indices ranging between 0.7 unites and 1.6 unites based on the CNCM33 predictors for both versions (run1, run2). A few extremely low/high values are due to the low skill of the statistical downscaling model at some stations and these can be excluded. In case of the MPEH5 predictors, the changes are much smaller, due to a very large value of the predictor standard deviation, compared to those resulted from the CNCM33 predictors (see conclusions presented in 3.2). For the period 2071-2100, the projections based on the CNCM33 predictors, run1 version, range between 1.9 unites and 4.9 unites for IR and 1.9-3.3 unites for ITU. In case of the run2 version, the changes are smaller for both indices. For the the projections resulted from the MPEH5 predictors, similar comments with those presented above for the period 2021-2050 can be made.
In conclusion, we can say that the statistical downscaled projections of the two stress indices are more credible when are based on the CNCM33 (run1) predictors. This result is also proved by the fact that the mean of T850 predictor is correctly simulated by the CNCM33, compared with the MPEH5 model. To have a better estimation of the uncertainties associated to the statistical downscaled projections of the two stress indices, more GCMs with high performance in simulating the large-scale predictors used as inputs in the statistical downscaling model should be considered.

3.3. Scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes at very high spatial and temporal resolution
Model based on CCA

In the reported period has been applied another procedure for scenarios of changes in 6-hours precipitation, 1km×1km spatial resolution over the Barlad basin. In the previous year, the stochastic model has been applied, which reproduces well the long term precipitation statistics (mean, frequency) but a random distribution of values within 6-hour time series. The long-term statistics are obtained as ensemble average over many runs. Due to the specific features of the hydrological model used in this project (using of spatial cumulated precipitation amount over sub-basins; it can not be automatically applied over an ensemble of precipitation time series), an alternative procedure to generate 6-hour precipitation time series: the seasonal change is added to observed 6-hour precipitation over 1971-2000 period. This procedure have also been applied in previous climate change impact hydrological studies. From this reason, in the reported period, the 6-hour temperature scenarios were calculated again using a similar technique as follows:
- The predictand (6-hour gridded temperature over the Barlad basin) data set has been stratified on season and hour (1, 7, 13, 19) and, in this way, 16 seasonal data sets were obtained; the large-scale predictors of the observed data set (2m-grided temperature of the 2.5° lat × 2.5° lon reanalysis) and GCM simulations have been stratified in a similar way;
- For each data set, a CCA model was developed, calibrated over the 1971-2000 interval (validate over 1961-1969 and 2001-2010 intervals), and then applied to the anomalies of the large-scale predictors over the two future periods (2021-2050, 2071-2100) against the 1971-2000 period. In this way, for each 6 hour-interval (1,7,13,19) and each season (winter, spring, summer and autumn), the temperature changes in each grid point at 1km×1km spatial resolution were estimated.
The results show that for the period 2021-2050, changes in mean temperature range between 0.5/0.6°C in spring (almost the same over the four time intervals) and 1.8 °C in autumn, hour 13. For the period 2071-2100, the highest change was identified at hour 13 (ranging between 2.2 °C in spring and 3.5 °C in summer) and lowest at hour 1 and 7 (ranging between 1.6 °C/1.7 °C in spring and 3.0 °C/3.2 °C in summer).

Model based on artificial neural networks (ANN)
The statistical downscaling models based on artificial neural networks ( Multi-Layer Perceptron type) developed in the previous year for 6-hour temperature at 81 stations over Romania, calibrated over 1961-1990 (validated over 1991-2010) were applied to predictors (large-scale temperature at 850 hPa) simulated by the CNCM33 model over the intervals 1961-1990, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 and then the changes over 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 against 1961-1990 were calculated. The results show changes of annual temperature between 0.5 °C and 1.6 °C for the period 2021-2015 and between 0.8 °C and 3 °C for the period 2071-2100, with the highest values over the south-eastern regions and lowest ones over the north-western regions. These results are included in a paper submitted for publication in a international peer-reviewed journal (Theoretical and Applied Climatology, see Birsan and Dumitrescu, 2015, Annex A1, www.climhydex.meteoromania.ro).

4. Analysis scenarios of the hydrological response of river basins, according to the land use change

For the identification at a detailed scale of the complex mechanisms that control the variability of the hydrological extremes, the model with semi – distributed SWAT parameters (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was calibrated for Moneasa representative basin, a 3rd order tributary of Crișul Alb, with a surface of 81.2 km2.
The hydrological modelling is applied for the purpose of investigating the hydrological responses to the land use/ cover change. The use requests of the land for the next period are characterized by an increase of agricultural lands and pastures, to the detriment of the areas covered by forests, especially shrubs. But land cover is one of the essential elements that determine the values of surface runoff and erosion. The forest, especially through specific hydrological processes (evapotranspiration, infiltration, soil moisture, canopy cover interception) contributes to reducing extreme values.
Based on the current land use, mostly deciduous forests (87% of the area), and analyzing the practical and scientific needs of the problem addressed, there were established three new work scenarios (S-60, S-35 and S-35- 2 agricultural), consisting of reducing the areas covered by forest (from 87% to 60% and respectively 35%) and their replacement by secondary meadows, transition zone with shrub and predominantly agricultural land. The last scenario took into account the increasing of surfaces occupied by agricultural land from 1.1% to 13.5% and from 0.75% of built space to 1.45%. The lithological substrate and sharp slopes naturally limit the possibility of enlarging the anthropic lands.
The preparation of the necessary data consisted in achieving the Digital Elevation Model at the resolution of 5 m, delimitation of the sub-basins, defining the hydrological response units (HRU), defining the climate database (precipitations; minimum and maximum temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, air humidity, dew point), defining hydrological database. The most important variables in calibrating the model are precipitations and maximum and minimum temperature. For the historical data regarding these parameters, there were analyzed two data sets of gridded temperature and precipitation (1km×1km) created by the National Meteorology Administration (ANM) within the CLIMHYDEX project and reported in previous reports (see Dumitrescu et al., 2015, Annex A1, www.climhydex.meteoromania.ro)..
The influence of land use changes on average monthly discharges are insignificant. Instead, the maximum daily discharges increase due to changes in land use. The differences between the scenarios of reducing the areas occupied by forest and the current situation are directly proportional to the size of the river basin. Thus, at the outlet of the Moneasa representative basin, the differences can reach 2.2 m3/s for scenario S-60, 2.8 m3/s for S-35 and 4.5 m3/s for S-35-2. The daily streamflow with a return period of once every year increased on average by almost 2 m3/s at Rănuşa gauging station in scenario S-35-2. This last scenario leads to higher streamflow, especially during the October - March period, when, through the surfaces covered with deciduous forests, a larger precipitations amount reaches into the water courses.
The analysis of land use through the 3 scenarios points out that the effects of the afforested areas are less obvious on lands with steep slope and shallow soil profile. It is expected that the influence of land use on peak maximum streamflow to be higher.

5. Future changes in hydrological extremes over the selected basins (Crisul Alb, Barlad)

5.1. Calibration of the model with distributed parameters NOAH for Crişul Alb river basins
As a first step for the assessment of climate change impact on the Crisul Alb River Basin hydrological regime, by detailed hydrological modeling, in 2015 reported period, the calibration of the the NOAH distributed parameters hydrological model was carried out. The NOAH model was calibrated for the Crisul Alb River Basin with 1 km spatial resolution for the rainfall-runoff processes, 100 m spatial resolution for the slope and rivers network routing processes, and respectively a time step of 30 minutes for simulating the rainfall-runoff processes.
NOAH model use a series of static parameters, with physical meaning, which are function of the river basin physical-geographical characteristics: soil, vegetation, land use. The initial values for these parameters were established based on the dependencies between the model parameters and the main physical-geographical characteristics for the Crisul Alb River Basin.
Within this reporting phase, the NOAH distributed parameters hydrological model calibration for the Crisul Alb River Basin was done using the available historical data and the relations between model parameters and the main physical-geographical characteristics for this River Basin.
As first sub-phase activity during the calibration process, multiple NOAH model simulations were done using as input data a synthetic precipitation event, representing the maximum 24 hours precipitation with a mean return period of 100 years. The simulated values were compared with the maximum discharge values with different return period for the hydrometric stations sections from selected representative rivers basins. The objective of this first simulation stage was to identify plausible values domains for the parameters that need to be calibrated, corresponding to the particularities of the runoff formation in Crisul Alb River Basin.
Based on the analysis of the main physical-geographical factors, which have influence on the hydrological processes at the level of the entire Crisul Alb River Basin, the following representative river basins: R.B. Valea Mare – H.S. Tarnova, R.B. Sighisoara – H.S. Brazii and R.B. Luncoi – H.S. Brad, were supplementary selected together with Moneasa representative River Basin.
For calibrating the NOAH model in these selected representative river basins the following historical meteorological data were used: (i) historical precipitation and air temperature data at high resolution produced within CLIMHYDEX Project, (ii) Historical data for the other input meteorological parameters for NOAH model from the “WATCH-Forcing Data-ERA-interim” datasets, available after updating and extending the datasets generated within the European Project ”Integrated Project Water and Global Change” –WATCH (http://www.eu-watch.org/data_availability).
The calibration with historical data was done in an iterative way, comparing after each iteration model simulations output with the observed values for different historical periods, representative for different runoff regime. As output from this calibration process were obtained the optimal parameters values for the simulation of the hydrological processes in the selected representative river basins, values which were transferred by regionalization approach to entire Crisul Alb River Basin, taking into account that the selected representative basins contains the diversity of classes for the entire analyzed river basin.

5.2. Calibration of the hydrological model with lumped parameters in the river basin Crişul Alb

For the estimation of the impact of climate change and climate variability upon the runoff regime in the Crişul Alb river basin the hydrological model with lumped parameters Consul are used. This model computes the discharge hydrographs on sub-basins, their routing and composition on the main river and tributaries according to the schematic representation (physiographic modelling) of how water flows and collects in a river basin. After physiographic modelling resulted for Crişul Alb river basin: 42 sub-basins and 20 river reaches.
The CONSUL model was calibrated in the river basin Crişul Alb by the simulation of flow in the period 1975-2010. Calculation of average precipitation and air temperature (hydrological model input data) for each sub-basin was performed using a pre-processing program of meteorological data from original rectangular grid nodes corresponding to Crişul Alb river basin, averaging being achieved as weighted values based on the representativeness of these nodes for each analyzed sub-basin.
To determine the initial values of CONSUL model parameters the generalization relationships of these parameters based on morphometric characteristics of the river basin or river reach were used.
Calibration of model parameters was performed in two stages: on events and global. The calibration of the model structures on events was made based on the 25 rainfall-runoff events, chosen to cover a wide range of possible situations in the case of floods formation. Thus, the infiltration and unit hydrograph parameters were determined at the hydrometric stations from the Crişul Alb river basin. These parameters allowed then the parameter estimation for the ungauged sub-basins
(Mic et al., 2015). The global calibration of rainfall-runoff model parameters was done by simulating the flow on continuous periods from considered calibration period. Performed simulations allowed the recalibration of infiltration and unit hydrograph parameters at the sub-basins uncontrolled hydrometric as well as the calibration of routing equation parameters.

Measured and simulated discharges
at Gurahonţ on Crişul Alb River, for May 1984

The flow simulation results with the CONSUL model in the river basin Crişul Alb showed that the model gives the best results, in particular in the case of floods generated by precipitation evenly distributed in space. Deviations of flow hydrographs simulated by CONSUL and observed are due to both model errors and insufficient meteorological and hydrological data. The main error is caused by the uncertainty related to the average precipitation computed values on each sub-basin and its variable spatial and temporal distribution.
5.3. Impact assessment of climate change on liquid and suspended solid flows transited through Tungujei reservoir

In this stage there was a hydrological analysis on Sacovat River in upstream and downstream of Tungujei reservoir which has a reception area of 220 km2 and a average water storage volume of 25×106 m³. In order to estimate the hydrological changes induced by the presence of this reservoir, the IHA (Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration) model was used. The recorded solid and liquid discharges at Sofroneşti hydrometric station located downstream of the Tungujei reservoir were analyzed. The results indicate that the impact of this accumulation is visible in liquid flow rates (minimum, average and maximum), but also that the solid discharges are affected in all phases of the hydrological regime (drought, flooding or mean discharges). These results were presented in an article published in the Conference Proceedings of 15th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2015 (Retegan & Borcan, 2015).

5.4. Hydrogeological model calibration and quantification of climatic factors on groundwater

In order to achieve hydrogeologic conceptual model of the groundwater in the Crisul Alb Plain, between Sebis and Varsand, it was updated the database for each hydrogeological ord. I station from the studied area: Bocsig, Cil, Chişineu Cris, Ineu, Varsand, Zarand.
Based on these data we analyzed variation of hydrostatic level for representative wells from each hydrogeological station. The results have been the subject of scientific paper (Stănescu & Radu, 2015) published in the Conference Proceedings of 15th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2015.
Having in view the hydrogeological sections analyzed in the previous stage, the parameters needed to develop the groundwater characteristic structural maps or bathymetric contour map based on the aquifer and izopahite map were determined. Also, the data to be used in MIKE SHE program it has been selected and validated (Radu et al., 2015).
Partial results obtained in this phase were presented at the conference / exhibition ECO ENVIRONMENT, Arad 2015.

6. Quantifying the vulnerability of water resources to climate change

During 2015, the activities for the objective regarding the water vulnerability to climate change, at the Crişul Alb and Bârlad river basins levels, were conducted. Based on the statistics data set, using the direct and indirect methods of forecasting, it was completed the forecast for water demands for domestic and industrial water-supply, irrigation, livestock and aquaculture / fish farming, for project eligible areas, in the time horizons 2021 and 2050.
The results obtained were presented at the NIHWM Annual Scientific Conference, 2-3 November 2015, in a paper (Georgescu & Dumitrache, 2015) which is in the publishing process into the Conference Proceedings.
The following conclusions regarding the future water demand in Crişul Alb river basin are revealed:
- The total water demands for water supply from Crişul Alb river basin will increase by 10% in 2050 compared to 2021, respectively will increase from 18.734 thousand m3/year in 2021 to 20.678 thousand m3/year;
- In the irrigation sector, the water demand in 2050 will be 75% higher then 2021, representing the highest growth in terms of water requirement, followed by the industry sector where the water demand will be 41% higher in 2050 then 2021 and fish farming sector where the water demand will be with 9% higher in 2050 then 2021;
- Regarding the water supply for population and livestock, the water demands required will be by 14% and 28%, respectively, lower in 2050 compared to 2021. One of the main reasons was the decrease in the number of persons with about 6% in 2021 compared to 2011 and 37% in 2050 compared to 2011.
Regarding the Bârlad river basin the following conclusions were revealed:
- The total water demands for water supply from Bârlad river basin will be 4% lower in 2050 compared to 2021, respectively will decrease from 84.416 thousand m3/year in 2021 to 81.235 thousand m3/year in 2050;
- In the irrigation sector, the water demand in 2050 will be by 75% higher then 2021, representing the highest growth in terms of water requirement, followed by the fish farming sector where the water demand will be with 9% higher in 2050 then 2021;
- Regarding the water supply for population, industry and livestock, the water demands required in these sectors will be by 15%, 6% and 53%, respectively, lower in 2050 compared to 2021; One of the main reasons was the decrease in the number of persons with about 5% in 2021 compared to 2011 and with 42% in 2050 compared to 2011.

Publications

A1. International peer-reviewed journals

1. Barbu N, Cuculeanu V, Stefan S. 2015. Investigation of the relationship between very warm days in Romania and large-scale atmospheric circulation using multiple linear regression approach. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-015-1579-7
2. Barbu N, Burada C, Ștefan S, Georgescu F. 2015. Changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation over Romania between 1961 and 2010 on seasonal base. Acta Geophysica (accepted).
3. Birsan MV, Dumitrescu A. 2015. Statistical downscaling of sub-daily temperature in Romania by means of artificial neural networks. Theoretical and Applied Climatology (under review).
4. Busuioc A, Dobrinescu A, Birsan MV, Dumitrescu A, Orzan A. 2015. Spatial and temporal variability of climate extremes in Romania and associated large-scale mechanisms. International Journal of Climatology 35(7): 1278-1300. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4054 (open access).
5. Carbunaru D, Burcea S. 2015. Thermodynamic configurations associated with heavy rainfall in Eastern Romania. International Journal of Climatology. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4491 (open access)
6. Dascalu SI, Gothard M, Bojariu R, Bîrsan MV, Cică R, Vintilă R, Adler MJ, Chendeș V, Mic RP. 2015. Drought-related variables over the Bârlad basin (Eastern Romania) under climate change scenarios. Catena (under 2nd review).
7. Dobrinescu A, Busuioc A, Birsan MV, Dumitrescu A, Orzan A. 2015. Changes in thermal discomfort indices in Romania and their connections with large-scale mechanisms. Climate Research 64: 213-226, doi: 10.3354/cr0131 (open access)
8. Dumitrescu A, Birsan MV, Manea A. 2015. Spatio-temporal interpolation of sub-daily (6 h) precipitation over Romania for the period 1975–2010 International Journal of Climatology. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4427
9. Ionita M, Scholz P, Chelcea S. 2015. Spatio-temporal variability of dryness/wetness in the Danube River Basin. Hydrological Processes 29(20): 4483-4497. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.10514
10. Mic RP, Corbuş C, Mătreaţă M. 2015. Long-term flow simulation in Bârlad river basin using Romanian hydrological model CONSUL. Carpathian Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences 10(4): 145-156.
11. Rimbu N, Stefan S, Busuioc A, Georgescu F. 2015. Links between blocking circulation and precipitation extremes over Romania in summer. International Journal of Climatology. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4353

A3. BDI publications

1. Cheval S. 2015. The Standardized Precipitation Index – An Overview. Romanian Journal of Meteorology 12: 17-64.
2. Mic RP, Corbuș C, Mătreaţă M, Preda A. 2015. Regionalization of CONSUL Hydrological Model Parameters for Flow Simulation in the Barlad River Basin, Romania. Proceedings of the 15th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2015, 18-24 June 2015, Albena Bulgaria, Book 3, Volume 1, pp 541-548. DOI: 10.5593/sgem2015B31
3. Radu E, Stanescu G, Rotaru C. 2015. Geological and hydrogeological considerations on the Quaternary deposits from Crişul Alb basin, between Vârşand and Sebiş (CLIMHYDEX Project). Proceedings of "Air and Water – Components of the Environment", 20-22 March 2015, Cluj-Napoca, pp. 117-124. Presa Universitară Clujană.
4. Retegan M, Borcan M. 2015. The Impact of Tungujei Reservoir Upon the Hydrological Regime in the Sacovăț River Basin, Eastern Romania, Proceedings of the 15th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2015, 18-24 June 2015, Albena Bulgaria. Conference Proceedings, Book 3, Volume 1, pp 663-670. DOI: 10.5593/SGEM2015/B31/S12.085
5. Stănescu G, Radu E. 2015. The Evolution of the Hydrostatic Level of the Shallow Aquifer from Crisul Alb Plain, Between Varsand and Sebis. Proceedings of the 15th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2015, 18-24 June 2015, Albena Bulgaria, Book 1, Volume 2, pp 813-820. DOI: 10.5593/SGEM2015/B12/S2.108

A4. Others publications

1.Silvia Chelcea, Doina Drăguşin, Lăcrămioara Coarnă, Adrian Alexandru Aldea, 2015: Perioade secetoase și umede evidenţiate pe baza indicilor SFI (Standardized Flow Index) şi SGI (Standardized Groundwater Index) în bazinul hidrografic Crişul Alb, Conferinţa ştiinţifică anuală a INHGA, 2-3 noiembrie 2015 (în curs de publicare).
2.Georgescu TA, Dumitrache R. 2015. Estimarea cerinţelor de apă ale folosinţelor utilizatoare de apă din bazinul hidrografic Crișul Alb pentru orizonturile de timp 2021 și 2050, Conferinţa ştiinţifică anuală a INHGA, 2-3 noiembrie 2015. (în curs de publicare)
3.Mic RP, Corbuş C, Mătreaţă M. 2015. Utilizarea modelului hidrologic cu parametrii concentraţi CONSUL la simularea scurgerii în bazinul hidrografic Crişul Alb, Conferinţa ştiinţifică anuală a INHGA, 2-3 noiembrie 2015. (în curs de publicare)

B. PhD theses

1. Barbu N. 2015. Contributii la studiul fenomenelor meteorologice extreme in Romania. Facultatea de Fizica, Universitatea din București.
2. Dobrinescu EA. 2015. Cercetări privind schimbările în caracteristicile extremelor termice din România. Susținută public în data de 20.10.2015, Facultatea de Fizică, Universitatea București. tă public în data de 20.10.2015, Facultatea de Fizică, Universitatea București.

Project Director,
Dr. Aristita Busuioc

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